Live data

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

18% Implied chance · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$1 284 810 732 Volume

Data collected 2026-09-25 10:06 UTC · Source: public prediction-market data

What these numbers say

Some $1 284 810 732 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.

The market closes 2028-11-08. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.

Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.

Open markets

Market	Leading outcome	Implied chance	Volume	Ends
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	18 %	1 284 810 732	2028-11-08
Presidential Election Winner 2028	JD Vance	21 %	709 078 403	2029-01-21
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	J.D. Vance	51 %	707 973 506	2028-11-08
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Abiy Ahmed	96 %	286 057 008	2029-01-01
Brazil Presidential Election	Flávio Bolsonaro	55 %	154 958 505	2026-10-04
Next French Presidential Election	Marine Le Pen	38 %	137 692 732	2027-04-18
Netanyahu out by when?	end of 2026	46 %	124 417 102	2027-01-01
Venezuela leader end of 2026?	Nicolás Maduro be the leader	60 %	97 613 685	2027-01-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by when?	December 31	6 %	74 274 930	2027-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by when?	before 2027	4 %	70 335 421	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	14 %	68 786 890	2027-01-01
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?	no Fed rate cuts	97 %	53 383 594	2027-01-01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	4 %	42 806 641	2027-01-01
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	95 %	41 321 077	2026-11-04

Data collected 2026-09-25 10:06 UTC · Source: public prediction-market data