Event odds

40 questions the market is pricing right now. A price is what people are paying, not a forecast — that difference is the whole point of the section.

• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
• Presidential Election Winner 2028
• Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
• Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
• Fed Decision in September?
• Brazil Presidential Election
• Next French Presidential Election
• Netanyahu out by...?
• Venezuela leader end of 2026?
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
• How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
• California Governor Election Winner
• Iran leader end of 2026?
• Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
• Israel closes its airspace by...?
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
• Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
• Iran leadership change by...?
• Putin out as President of Russia by...?
• Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
• Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
• Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
• Los Angeles Mayoral Election
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?
• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
• Trump out as President before 2027?
• Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?