Prediction market odds on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by when?
Traders have put $15 267 497 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 18 % means the market treats «December 31» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 18.5 % | 1 154 508 |
| October 31 | 8.5 % | 680 021 |
| September 30 | 0.7 % | 3 709 874 |
| May 31 | 0 % | 1 339 221 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 1 218 248 |
| June 15 | 0 % | 221 114 |
| June 22 | 0 % | 129 291 |
| July 31 | 0 % | 1 443 324 |
| August 31 | 0 % | 2 558 816 |
| September 15 | 0 % | 831 136 |
| March 31 | 0 % | 330 325 |
| April 30 | 0 % | 1 651 617 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «December 31» is ahead at 18 %, 10 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
12 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 36 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $15 267 497 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. R
Quoted from the market rules.
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