Prediction market odds on Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Traders have put $13 965 949 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 64 % means the market treats «D Senate, D House» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| D Senate, D House | 63.5 % | 3 538 760 |
| R Senate, D House | 28.5 % | 2 419 309 |
| R Senate, R House | 7.5 % | 4 025 861 |
| D Senate, R House | 1.1 % | 2 033 225 |
| Other | 0.1 % | 1 948 795 |
What these numbers say
«D Senate, D House» dominates at 64 % — 35 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
5 outcomes, and 71 % of everything staked is concentrated in three of them. That concentration is itself information.
Some $13 965 949 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-05. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the
Quoted from the market rules.
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