Prediction market odds on Brazil Presidential Election
Traders have put $154 958 505 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 55 % means the market treats «Flávio Bolsonaro» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 55.5 % | 11 818 367 |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 43.5 % | 12 181 581 |
| Renan Santos | 0.5 % | 14 402 724 |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.1 % | 6 760 905 |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1 % | 14 096 658 |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1 % | 7 389 685 |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1 % | 7 550 956 |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1 % | 10 378 811 |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1 % | 10 457 679 |
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior | 0.1 % | 10 465 754 |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.1 % | 7 709 011 |
| Romeu Zema | 0.1 % | 7 706 003 |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1 % | 5 596 133 |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1 % | 8 012 907 |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.1 % | 4 966 808 |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1 % | 4 041 581 |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.1 % | 2 422 918 |
| Pablo Marçal | 0.1 % | 3 979 952 |
| Augusto Cury | 0.1 % | 5 020 072 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Flávio Bolsonaro» is ahead at 55 %, 12 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
19 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 25 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $154 958 505 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-10-04. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Quoted from the market rules.
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