Prediction market odds on Brazil Presidential Election
Traders have put $150 069 956 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 52 % means the market treats «Flávio Bolsonaro» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 51.7 % | 10 703 885 |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 44.5 % | 11 079 535 |
| Renan Santos | 1.8 % | 13 486 987 |
| Augusto Cury | 0.5 % | 4 864 163 |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1 % | 7 007 240 |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.1 % | 7 550 588 |
| Romeu Zema | 0.1 % | 7 309 826 |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1 % | 14 074 303 |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1 % | 7 536 859 |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1 % | 10 360 557 |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1 % | 10 450 615 |
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior | 0.1 % | 10 434 619 |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1 % | 5 582 511 |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.1 % | 6 294 044 |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1 % | 7 986 937 |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.1 % | 4 955 808 |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1 % | 4 013 069 |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.1 % | 2 408 918 |
| Pablo Marçal | 0.1 % | 3 969 492 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Flávio Bolsonaro» is ahead at 52 %, 7 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
19 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 24 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $150 069 956 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-10-04. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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