Prediction market odds on California Governor Election Winner
Traders have put $40 986 141 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 95 % means the market treats «Xavier Becerra» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 95.3 % | 1 929 099 |
| Steve Hilton | 4.5 % | 2 743 189 |
| Tom Steyer | 0.1 % | 4 793 564 |
| Rick Caruso | 0.1 % | 1 797 432 |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1 % | 1 996 672 |
| Katie Porter | 0.1 % | 1 770 134 |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | 0.1 % | 1 617 980 |
| Stephen Cloobeck | 0.1 % | 1 572 637 |
| Butch Ware | 0.1 % | 1 313 396 |
| Betty Yee | 0.1 % | 1 748 031 |
| Toni Atkins | 0.1 % | 1 557 569 |
| Kyle Langford | 0.1 % | 1 828 759 |
| Chad Bianco | 0.1 % | 1 947 247 |
| Eleni Kounalakis | 0.1 % | 1 431 189 |
| Daniel Mercuri | 0.1 % | 1 396 558 |
| Tony Thurmond | 0.1 % | 1 425 708 |
| Michael Younger | 0.1 % | 1 546 580 |
| Leo Zacky | 0.1 % | 1 094 831 |
| Nicole Shanahan | 0.1 % | 1 778 283 |
| Eric Swalwell | 0.1 % | 1 497 145 |
| Kamala Harris | 0.1 % | 1 567 326 |
| Matt Mahan | 0.1 % | 1 370 450 |
| Elaine Culotti | 0.1 % | 1 262 363 |
What these numbers say
«Xavier Becerra» dominates at 95 % — 91 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
23 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 23 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $40 986 141 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-11-03. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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