Prediction market odds on California Governor Election Winner
Traders have put $41 321 077 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 95 % means the market treats «Xavier Becerra» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 95.5 % | 2 065 932 |
| Steve Hilton | 4.5 % | 2 939 803 |
| Rick Caruso | 0.1 % | 1 797 457 |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1 % | 1 996 672 |
| Katie Porter | 0.1 % | 1 770 153 |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | 0.1 % | 1 617 980 |
| Stephen Cloobeck | 0.1 % | 1 572 637 |
| Butch Ware | 0.1 % | 1 313 396 |
| Betty Yee | 0.1 % | 1 748 031 |
| Toni Atkins | 0.1 % | 1 557 590 |
| Kyle Langford | 0.1 % | 1 828 759 |
| Chad Bianco | 0.1 % | 1 947 368 |
| Eleni Kounalakis | 0.1 % | 1 431 189 |
| Daniel Mercuri | 0.1 % | 1 396 558 |
| Tony Thurmond | 0.1 % | 1 425 729 |
| Michael Younger | 0.1 % | 1 546 580 |
| Leo Zacky | 0.1 % | 1 094 831 |
| Nicole Shanahan | 0.1 % | 1 778 283 |
| Eric Swalwell | 0.1 % | 1 497 145 |
| Tom Steyer | 0.1 % | 4 794 823 |
| Kamala Harris | 0.1 % | 1 567 326 |
| Matt Mahan | 0.1 % | 1 370 450 |
| Elaine Culotti | 0.1 % | 1 262 386 |
What these numbers say
«Xavier Becerra» dominates at 95 % — 91 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
23 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 16 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $41 321 077 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-11-04. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Quoted from the market rules.
Whatever you decide here, deposit only what you can afford to lose and check the withdrawal rules before you fund an account.
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