Prediction market odds on Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Traders have put $1 278 471 820 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 19 % means the market treats «Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 19.2 % | 15 186 131 |
| Jon Ossoff | 16.9 % | 12 911 322 |
| Gavin Newsom | 12.8 % | 27 295 632 |
| Kamala Harris | 8 % | 13 297 100 |
| Josh Shapiro | 6 % | 9 956 409 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.5 % | 12 000 903 |
| Mark Kelly | 3.2 % | 17 585 463 |
| Andy Beshear | 2.5 % | 13 184 927 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.5 % | 14 569 130 |
| James Talarico | 2.4 % | 10 645 032 |
| Wes Moore | 1.8 % | 18 420 311 |
| Ro Khanna | 1.7 % | 11 277 132 |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.2 % | 15 721 309 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.9 % | 12 510 096 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.7 % | 12 057 985 |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7 % | 50 437 917 |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.5 % | 32 189 911 |
| Cory Booker | 0.5 % | 26 301 027 |
| Hunter Biden | 0.5 % | 44 442 855 |
| Chris Murphy | 0.5 % | 17 406 080 |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.4 % | 52 742 639 |
| Michelle Obama | 0.2 % | 26 274 062 |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.2 % | 1 182 831 |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1 % | 23 011 411 |
| Mark Cuban | 0.1 % | 22 930 475 |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1 % | 35 770 343 |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1 % | 38 942 030 |
| Roy Cooper | 0.1 % | 31 516 503 |
| Jon Stewart | 0.1 % | 24 756 109 |
| Barack Obama | 0.1 % | 34 062 923 |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.1 % | 43 906 080 |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1 % | 48 732 000 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1 % | 36 465 932 |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1 % | 3 081 131 |
| Josh Stein | 0.1 % | 2 376 339 |
| Tim Walz | 0.1 % | 43 477 093 |
| John Fetterman | 0.1 % | 25 595 540 |
| Jared Polis | 0.1 % | 27 360 604 |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1 % | 38 528 242 |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1 % | 42 423 361 |
| LeBron James | 0.1 % | 43 975 952 |
| George Clooney | 0.1 % | 43 434 074 |
| MrBeast | 0.1 % | 41 006 435 |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1 % | 54 418 009 |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1 % | 42 812 606 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1 % | 42 919 319 |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.1 % | 8 551 167 |
| Graham Platner | 0.1 % | 8 530 118 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1 % | 804 511 |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1 % | 555 636 |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1 % | 931 669 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez» is ahead at 19 %, 2 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
51 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 4 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $1 278 471 820 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2028-11-07. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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