Prediction market odds on Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Traders have put $1 284 810 732 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 18 % means the market treats «Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18.2 % | 15 241 779 |
| Jon Ossoff | 16.4 % | 13 000 528 |
| Gavin Newsom | 14.9 % | 27 743 358 |
| Kamala Harris | 6.2 % | 13 556 615 |
| Josh Shapiro | 6 % | 10 047 871 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.3 % | 12 115 213 |
| Mark Kelly | 2.9 % | 17 656 049 |
| Andy Beshear | 2.8 % | 13 282 519 |
| James Talarico | 2.4 % | 10 683 655 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.1 % | 14 586 014 |
| Wes Moore | 1.8 % | 18 427 218 |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.4 % | 15 768 728 |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4 % | 11 304 712 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1 % | 12 514 611 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.9 % | 12 122 180 |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.8 % | 50 603 834 |
| Cory Booker | 0.7 % | 26 320 291 |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.5 % | 32 470 390 |
| Mark Cuban | 0.5 % | 23 143 107 |
| Hunter Biden | 0.5 % | 44 501 622 |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.4 % | 52 751 530 |
| Chris Murphy | 0.4 % | 17 409 116 |
| Jon Stewart | 0.4 % | 24 767 037 |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.3 % | 44 065 005 |
| Michelle Obama | 0.2 % | 26 325 766 |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1 % | 23 052 156 |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1 % | 35 775 890 |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1 % | 38 949 756 |
| Roy Cooper | 0.1 % | 31 723 672 |
| Jared Polis | 0.1 % | 27 409 599 |
| Barack Obama | 0.1 % | 34 173 908 |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1 % | 42 889 749 |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1 % | 48 739 739 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1 % | 36 471 827 |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.1 % | 8 862 574 |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1 % | 3 081 324 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1 % | 2 134 394 |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1 % | 1 614 288 |
| Josh Stein | 0.1 % | 2 388 066 |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.1 % | 156 063 |
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.1 % | 568 111 |
| Tim Walz | 0.1 % | 43 497 351 |
| John Fetterman | 0.1 % | 25 659 972 |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1 % | 38 532 645 |
| LeBron James | 0.1 % | 43 986 276 |
| George Clooney | 0.1 % | 43 453 283 |
| MrBeast | 0.1 % | 41 008 534 |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1 % | 54 420 314 |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1 % | 42 812 956 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1 % | 42 919 728 |
| Graham Platner | 0.1 % | 8 531 338 |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1 % | 655 801 |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1 % | 932 669 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez» is ahead at 18 %, 2 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
53 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 4 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $1 284 810 732 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2028-11-08. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quoted from the market rules.
Take this as background, then check the specifics — minimum stake, withdrawal window, and which documents get asked for.
Head to Dexsport