Prediction market odds on Fed Decision in October?
Traders have put $10 414 033 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 54 % means the market treats «Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps | 53.5 % | 2 629 066 |
| there be no change in Fed interest rates | 45.5 % | 2 834 754 |
| Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps | 0.9 % | 1 584 307 |
| Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps | 0.5 % | 1 948 662 |
| Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps | 0.2 % | 1 427 537 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps» is ahead at 54 %, 8 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
5 outcomes, and 68 % of everything staked is concentrated in three of them. That concentration is itself information.
Some $10 414 033 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-10-29. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The le
Quoted from the market rules.
Whatever you decide here, deposit only what you can afford to lose and check the withdrawal rules before you fund an account.
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