Prediction market odds on How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Traders have put $53 383 594 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 97 % means the market treats «no Fed rate cuts» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| no Fed rate cuts | 97 % | 8 539 191 |
| 1 Fed rate cut | 1.7 % | 3 361 480 |
| 2 Fed rate cuts | 0.7 % | 3 282 826 |
| 3 Fed rate cuts | 0.3 % | 2 936 428 |
| 4 Fed rate cuts | 0.3 % | 2 737 431 |
| 5 Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 2 999 621 |
| 6 Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 4 225 100 |
| 7 Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 3 526 650 |
| 8 Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 3 295 913 |
| 9 Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 4 291 811 |
| 10 Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 4 954 180 |
| 11 Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 5 272 134 |
| 12 or more Fed rate cuts | 0.1 % | 3 960 832 |
What these numbers say
«no Fed rate cuts» dominates at 97 % — 95 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
13 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 28 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $53 383 594 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mon
Quoted from the market rules.
Read this alongside the terms of whichever platform you use — those terms, not this page, decide what happens to your stake.
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