Prediction market odds on Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Traders have put $17 922 884 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 8 % means the market treats «December 31,» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 7.5 % | 2 239 374 |
| October 31, | 2.1 % | 34 890 |
| May 31, | 0 % | 5 030 218 |
| July 31, | 0 % | 1 218 521 |
| August 31, | 0 % | 147 822 |
| April 30, | 0 % | 3 747 157 |
| June 30, | 0 % | 5 504 903 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «December 31,» is ahead at 8 %, 5 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
7 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 41 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $17 922 884 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of
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