Prediction market odds on Iran leader end of 2026?
Traders have put $39 454 961 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 83 % means the market treats «Mojtaba Khamenei» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 83 % | 6 494 793 |
| there be no | 4.6 % | 1 161 425 |
| Reza Pahlavi | 2.9 % | 683 679 |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | 1.1 % | 1 131 501 |
| Hassan Rouhani | 0.8 % | 948 404 |
| Alireza Arafi | 0.7 % | 2 320 794 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 0.5 % | 1 022 971 |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 0.4 % | 780 612 |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 0.4 % | 922 723 |
| Abbas Araghchi | 0.4 % | 834 957 |
| Hassan Khomeini | 0.2 % | 1 443 451 |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | 0.1 % | 457 284 |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | 0.1 % | 3 157 256 |
| Navid Shomali | 0.1 % | 227 705 |
| Ali Motahari | 0.1 % | 859 077 |
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | 0.1 % | 440 990 |
| Mohammad Khatami | 0.1 % | 5 214 548 |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | 0.1 % | 3 694 989 |
| Sadegh Mahsouli | 0.1 % | 243 571 |
| Sadegh Larijani | 0.1 % | 562 115 |
| Maryam Rajavi | 0.1 % | 863 867 |
| Massoud Rajavi | 0.1 % | 406 391 |
| Reza Pirzadeh | 0.1 % | 154 679 |
| Mustafa Hijri | 0.1 % | 205 808 |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | 0.1 % | 3 359 621 |
| Saeed Jalili | 0.1 % | 398 096 |
| Mohsen Araki | 0.1 % | 294 040 |
| Nasir Hosseini | 0.1 % | 266 607 |
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | 0.1 % | 313 518 |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | 0.1 % | 352 629 |
| Mohammad Pakpour | 0 % | 0 |
| Ali Larijani | 0 % | 236 860 |
What these numbers say
«Mojtaba Khamenei» dominates at 83 % — 78 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
32 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 21 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $39 454 961 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-12-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over th
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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