Prediction market odds on Iran leader end of 2026?
Traders have put $39 577 007 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 85 % means the market treats «Mojtaba Khamenei» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 84.5 % | 6 578 534 |
| there be no | 5 % | 1 162 765 |
| Reza Pahlavi | 2.9 % | 691 049 |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | 1.8 % | 1 131 815 |
| Hassan Rouhani | 0.9 % | 948 612 |
| Alireza Arafi | 0.5 % | 2 320 954 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 0.4 % | 1 030 856 |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 0.4 % | 923 835 |
| Abbas Araghchi | 0.2 % | 835 241 |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 0.2 % | 780 911 |
| Hassan Khomeini | 0.2 % | 1 443 808 |
| Navid Shomali | 0.1 % | 228 205 |
| Ali Motahari | 0.1 % | 859 577 |
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | 0.1 % | 441 490 |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | 0.1 % | 462 631 |
| Massoud Rajavi | 0.1 % | 406 939 |
| Sadegh Larijani | 0.1 % | 563 115 |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | 0.1 % | 3 157 756 |
| Maryam Rajavi | 0.1 % | 864 867 |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | 0.1 % | 3 694 989 |
| Reza Pirzadeh | 0.1 % | 155 679 |
| Mustafa Hijri | 0.1 % | 206 808 |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | 0.1 % | 3 360 621 |
| Sadegh Mahsouli | 0.1 % | 244 071 |
| Saeed Jalili | 0.1 % | 399 096 |
| Mohammad Khatami | 0.1 % | 5 215 128 |
| Mohsen Araki | 0.1 % | 295 040 |
| Nasir Hosseini | 0.1 % | 267 607 |
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | 0.1 % | 314 518 |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | 0.1 % | 353 629 |
| Mohammad Pakpour | 0 % | 0 |
| Ali Larijani | 0 % | 236 860 |
What these numbers say
«Mojtaba Khamenei» dominates at 85 % — 80 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
32 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 21 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $39 577 007 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-12-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over th
Quoted from the market rules.
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