Prediction market odds on Iran leadership change by...?
Traders have put $25 337 719 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 26 % means the market treats «June 30, 2027» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 26.5 % | 311 701 |
| December 31 | 14.5 % | 4 503 459 |
| November 30 | 9 % | 45 118 |
| October 31 | 6.5 % | 96 455 |
| September 30 | 2.2 % | 1 093 849 |
| July 31 | 0 % | 1 552 293 |
| August 31 | 0 % | 1 599 414 |
| August 15 | 0 % | 61 814 |
| August 22 | 0 % | 79 532 |
| March 13 | 0 % | 0 |
| March 31 | 0 % | 3 230 922 |
| April 30 | 0 % | 4 964 959 |
| May 31 | 0 % | 3 411 721 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 4 386 482 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «June 30, 2027» is ahead at 26 %, 12 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
14 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 19 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $25 337 719 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-07-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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