Prediction market odds on Israel closes its airspace by...?
Traders have put $30 663 761 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 97 % means the market treats «September 30» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 96.9 % | 3 070 603 |
| May 8 | 0 % | 495 248 |
| May 31 | 0 % | 2 509 870 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 4 823 492 |
| May 24 | 0 % | 570 943 |
| June 15 | 0 % | 5 651 394 |
| June 8 | 0 % | 1 100 436 |
| June 9 | 0 % | 1 251 540 |
| June 10 | 0 % | 1 045 931 |
| June 11 | 0 % | 452 640 |
| June 12 | 0 % | 147 791 |
| June 13 | 0 % | 117 282 |
| June 14 | 0 % | 787 296 |
| July 15 | 0 % | 1 770 056 |
| July 31 | 0 % | 3 278 470 |
| July 7 | 0 % | 199 595 |
| August 31 | 0 % | 1 561 278 |
| July 24 | 0 % | 821 200 |
| August 15 | 0 % | 1 008 696 |
What these numbers say
«September 30» dominates at 97 % — 97 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
19 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 20 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $30 663 761 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-10-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight susp
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