Prediction market odds on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Traders have put $29 993 481 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 100 % means the market treats «July 18» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| July 18 | 100 % | 245 773 |
| July 20 | 100 % | 351 226 |
| July 22 | 100 % | 953 284 |
| July 25 | 100 % | 2 652 892 |
| July 31 | 100 % | 3 394 418 |
| August 15 | 100 % | 2 534 770 |
| August 31 | 100 % | 3 333 311 |
| July 23 | 100 % | 279 287 |
| July 24 | 100 % | 772 687 |
| July 26 | 100 % | 1 140 801 |
| July 27 | 100 % | 538 714 |
| July 28 | 100 % | 392 797 |
| July 29 | 100 % | 648 413 |
| July 30 | 100 % | 553 197 |
| August 9 | 100 % | 2 357 475 |
| August 2 | 100 % | 2 959 161 |
| August 1 | 100 % | 1 393 397 |
| August 3 | 100 % | 1 143 345 |
| August 4 | 100 % | 861 735 |
| September 15 | 99.5 % | 147 852 |
| September 30 | 92.5 % | 1 983 677 |
| October 31 | 79.5 % | 580 794 |
| November 30 | 69.5 % | 215 172 |
| December 31 | 66.5 % | 559 305 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «July 18» is ahead at 100 %, 0 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
24 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 5 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $29 993 481 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-12-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munit
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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