Prediction market odds on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by when?
Traders have put $74 274 930 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 6 % means the market treats «December 31» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5.5 % | 409 640 |
| September 30 | 0.4 % | 2 296 968 |
| July 31 | 0 % | 6 273 479 |
| June 24 | 0 % | 1 117 303 |
| August 31 | 0 % | 5 917 974 |
| March 31 | 0 % | 7 792 978 |
| April 30 | 0 % | 17 372 089 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 13 456 217 |
| May 31 | 0 % | 11 190 578 |
| April 15 | 0 % | 8 447 703 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «December 31» is ahead at 6 %, 5 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
10 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 12 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $74 274 930 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If c
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