Prediction market odds on Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Traders have put $14 301 212 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 58 % means the market treats «Nithya Raman» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 57.6 % | 1 970 130 |
| Karen Bass | 43.5 % | 1 184 743 |
| Rick Caruso | 0 % | 494 515 |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 0 % | 140 311 |
| Gina Viola | 0 % | 166 044 |
| Spencer Pratt | 0 % | 7 857 675 |
| Austin Beutner | 0 % | 44 925 |
| Lindsey Horvath | 0 % | 1 687 268 |
| Monica Rodriguez | 0 % | 33 857 |
| Rae Huang | 0 % | 522 760 |
| Adam Miller | 0 % | 198 985 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Nithya Raman» is ahead at 58 %, 14 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
11 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 26 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $14 301 212 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Quoted from the market rules.
Read this alongside the terms of whichever platform you use — those terms, not this page, decide what happens to your stake.
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