Prediction market odds on Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Traders have put $13 631 153 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 66 % means the market treats «Karen Bass» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 65.5 % | 917 343 |
| Nithya Raman | 34.6 % | 1 567 471 |
| Rick Caruso | 0 % | 494 515 |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 0 % | 140 311 |
| Gina Viola | 0 % | 166 044 |
| Spencer Pratt | 0 % | 7 857 675 |
| Austin Beutner | 0 % | 44 925 |
| Lindsey Horvath | 0 % | 1 687 268 |
| Monica Rodriguez | 0 % | 33 857 |
| Rae Huang | 0 % | 522 760 |
| Adam Miller | 0 % | 198 985 |
What these numbers say
«Karen Bass» dominates at 66 % — 31 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
11 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 22 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $13 631 153 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-12-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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