Prediction market odds on Netanyahu out by...?
Traders have put $124 293 378 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 52 % means the market treats «end of 2026» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| end of 2026 | 52.5 % | 2 439 809 |
| May 31 | 0 % | 821 122 |
| July 31 | 0 % | 332 121 |
| March 31 | 0 % | 104 205 875 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 6 918 554 |
| April 30 | 0 % | 9 575 896 |
What these numbers say
«end of 2026» dominates at 52 % — 52 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
6 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 3 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $124 293 378 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
This applies wherever you bet. When you act on it, pick a platform whose terms match where you live and how you plan to deposit.
Open an account