Prediction market odds on Next French Presidential Election
Traders have put $137 692 732 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 38 % means the market treats «Marine Le Pen» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 38.4 % | 2 689 656 |
| Édouard Philippe | 23.5 % | 1 717 992 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12.5 % | 1 608 386 |
| David Lisnard | 7 % | 2 440 566 |
| François Hollande | 5.9 % | 2 003 651 |
| Gabriel Attal | 2.1 % | 2 416 138 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1.7 % | 1 859 408 |
| Jordan Bardella | 1.5 % | 2 252 991 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1.4 % | 2 357 709 |
| Éric Zemmour | 1.1 % | 2 526 070 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1.1 % | 1 996 273 |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.9 % | 2 196 323 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.5 % | 1 780 215 |
| Ségolène Royal | 0.4 % | 6 594 924 |
| François Ruffin | 0.1 % | 4 338 276 |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1 % | 4 238 474 |
| Olivier Faure | 0.1 % | 6 026 620 |
| Jean Castex | 0.1 % | 1 778 869 |
| Karim Bouamrane | 0.1 % | 952 033 |
| François Baroin | 0.1 % | 1 358 902 |
| Christine Lagarde | 0.1 % | 21 840 |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.1 % | 6 145 704 |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1 % | 3 684 663 |
| Fabien Roussel | 0.1 % | 4 244 293 |
| François Asselineau | 0.1 % | 5 755 683 |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.1 % | 4 990 072 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1 % | 4 741 077 |
| Michel Barnier | 0.1 % | 5 254 335 |
| Valérie Pécresse | 0.1 % | 4 066 895 |
| François Bayrou | 0.1 % | 5 939 554 |
| Élisabeth Borne | 0.1 % | 5 446 142 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1 % | 5 701 470 |
| Gérald Darmanin | 0.1 % | 2 086 508 |
| Carole Delga | 0.1 % | 4 742 203 |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.1 % | 2 338 862 |
| Manuel Bompard | 0.1 % | 4 826 252 |
| Mathilde Panot | 0.1 % | 6 420 688 |
| Juan Branco | 0.1 % | 2 362 563 |
| Clémence Guetté | 0.1 % | 4 175 200 |
| Lucie Castets | 0.1 % | 418 284 |
| Yannick Jadot | 0.1 % | 750 460 |
| Marion Maréchal | 0.1 % | 446 509 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Marine Le Pen» is ahead at 38 %, 15 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
42 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 4 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $137 692 732 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-04-18. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve b
Quoted from the market rules.
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