Prediction market odds on Next French Presidential Election
Traders have put $133 953 610 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 36 % means the market treats «Marine Le Pen» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 36.1 % | 2 488 461 |
| Édouard Philippe | 26.5 % | 1 611 986 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11.5 % | 1 472 603 |
| David Lisnard | 7 % | 2 270 029 |
| François Hollande | 4.3 % | 1 835 826 |
| Gabriel Attal | 2.2 % | 2 297 023 |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.1 % | 2 132 770 |
| Éric Zemmour | 1.8 % | 2 449 891 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1.6 % | 2 285 325 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1.6 % | 1 758 041 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 1.4 % | 1 721 593 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1.1 % | 1 895 474 |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.9 % | 2 085 134 |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.1 % | 5 958 033 |
| François Ruffin | 0.1 % | 3 716 942 |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1 % | 4 168 885 |
| Jean Castex | 0.1 % | 1 705 551 |
| Karim Bouamrane | 0.1 % | 877 872 |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1 % | 3 683 735 |
| Olivier Faure | 0.1 % | 5 781 525 |
| Juan Branco | 0.1 % | 2 260 444 |
| Clémence Guetté | 0.1 % | 4 175 189 |
| François Baroin | 0.1 % | 1 137 757 |
| Fabien Roussel | 0.1 % | 4 244 282 |
| Ségolène Royal | 0.1 % | 6 031 578 |
| François Asselineau | 0.1 % | 5 755 672 |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.1 % | 4 990 060 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1 % | 4 731 111 |
| Michel Barnier | 0.1 % | 5 253 712 |
| Valérie Pécresse | 0.1 % | 4 066 879 |
| François Bayrou | 0.1 % | 5 939 543 |
| Élisabeth Borne | 0.1 % | 5 446 132 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1 % | 5 701 432 |
| Gérald Darmanin | 0.1 % | 2 086 448 |
| Carole Delga | 0.1 % | 4 742 192 |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.1 % | 2 337 328 |
| Manuel Bompard | 0.1 % | 4 826 241 |
| Mathilde Panot | 0.1 % | 6 420 677 |
| Lucie Castets | 0.1 % | 418 274 |
| Yannick Jadot | 0.1 % | 750 449 |
| Marion Maréchal | 0.1 % | 441 509 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Marine Le Pen» is ahead at 36 %, 10 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
41 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 4 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $133 953 610 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-04-30. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve b
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