Prediction market odds on Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Traders have put $286 057 008 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 96 % means the market treats «Abiy Ahmed» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Abiy Ahmed | 95.9 % | 164 217 |
| Demeke Mekonnen | 1.6 % | 29 330 601 |
| Shimelis Abdisa | 1 % | 41 582 453 |
| Gedion Timothewos | 0.7 % | 55 938 233 |
| Belete Molla | 0.5 % | 32 292 059 |
| Alesa Mengesha | 0.5 % | 13 582 209 |
| Berhanu Nega | 0.3 % | 29 707 246 |
| Adanech Abiebie | 0.3 % | 83 459 990 |
What these numbers say
«Abiy Ahmed» dominates at 96 % — 94 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
8 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 25 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $286 057 008 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2029-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules.
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