Prediction market odds on Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Traders have put $11 299 719 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 57 % means the market treats «March 31, 2027» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 57.5 % | 302 364 |
| December 31, 2026 | 38.5 % | 313 142 |
| October 31, 2026 | 20.5 % | 99 561 |
| September 30, 2026 | 7.5 % | 1 006 854 |
| June 26, 2026 | 0 % | 117 317 |
| July 3, 2026 | 0 % | 2 479 684 |
| July 10, 2026 | 0 % | 1 929 815 |
| July 31, 2026 | 0 % | 1 738 167 |
| July 17, 2026 | 0 % | 967 849 |
| August 31, 2026 | 0 % | 1 506 145 |
| August 15, 2026 | 0 % | 501 971 |
| August 7, 2026 | 0 % | 336 852 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «March 31, 2027» is ahead at 57 %, 19 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
12 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 6 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $11 299 719 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-03-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy thro
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