Prediction market odds on Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Traders have put $24 049 857 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 9 % means the market treats «Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 9.2 % | 9 705 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7.5 % | 298 211 |
| Save the Children | 7 % | 6 406 |
| International Court of Justice | 5.2 % | 914 882 |
| UNRWA | 4.8 % | 2 051 854 |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 3.3 % | 3 730 |
| Donald Trump | 2.9 % | 4 691 472 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 2.2 % | 823 254 |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 2.1 % | 789 306 |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 1.5 % | 1 274 618 |
| World Central Kitchen | 1.4 % | 3 179 |
| Narendra Modi | 1.2 % | 688 647 |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.1 % | 1 474 059 |
| Chow Hang-tung | 1.1 % | 3 006 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 1.1 % | 3 366 |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 1.1 % | 1 788 |
| Reporters Without Borders | 1.1 % | 2 595 |
| António Guterres | 0.9 % | 641 652 |
| ICRC | 0.9 % | 3 270 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0.9 % | 821 583 |
| Julian Assange | 0.4 % | 857 022 |
| Xi Jinping | 0.4 % | 1 436 003 |
| UNHCR | 0.4 % | 3 212 |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 0.4 % | 3 698 |
| Elon Musk | 0.1 % | 1 195 147 |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.1 % | 922 349 |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.1 % | 880 596 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.1 % | 706 075 |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.1 % | 1 067 248 |
| Charlie Kirk | 0.1 % | 1 279 174 |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0.1 % | 1 192 750 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms» is ahead at 9 %, 2 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
31 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 1 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $24 049 857 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-10-10. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order a
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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