Prediction market odds on Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Traders have put $24 940 977 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 13 % means the market treats «Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 13.1 % | 29 275 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 6.5 % | 310 749 |
| International Court of Justice | 5.6 % | 917 666 |
| Save the Children | 5.5 % | 15 461 |
| UNRWA | 4 % | 2 057 507 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 4 % | 6 639 |
| Donald Trump | 2.1 % | 5 187 200 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 1.8 % | 835 756 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 1.6 % | 824 370 |
| Chow Hang-tung | 1.6 % | 14 425 |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.4 % | 1 478 397 |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1.3 % | 797 937 |
| António Guterres | 1.1 % | 642 587 |
| World Central Kitchen | 0.9 % | 3 791 |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 0.7 % | 1 275 622 |
| ICRC | 0.6 % | 3 887 |
| Julian Assange | 0.5 % | 857 623 |
| Reporters Without Borders | 0.5 % | 6 012 |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 0.5 % | 3 475 |
| Narendra Modi | 0.4 % | 689 839 |
| UNHCR | 0.3 % | 4 092 |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 0.3 % | 3 972 |
| Xi Jinping | 0.2 % | 1 513 405 |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 0.1 % | 5 903 |
| Elon Musk | 0.1 % | 1 222 822 |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.1 % | 955 949 |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.1 % | 909 578 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.1 % | 753 523 |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.1 % | 1 070 860 |
| Charlie Kirk | 0.1 % | 1 317 544 |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0.1 % | 1 225 114 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms» is ahead at 13 %, 7 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
31 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 5 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $24 940 977 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-04-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order a
Quoted from the market rules.
This holds regardless of where you place the bet. What changes with the platform is the payout schedule and the paperwork.
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