Prediction market odds on Presidential Election Winner 2028
Traders have put $705 813 629 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 23 % means the market treats «JD Vance» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 23.1 % | 16 360 030 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.2 % | 13 642 271 |
| Jon Ossoff | 11.6 % | 5 678 618 |
| Marco Rubio | 11.5 % | 12 480 015 |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.8 % | 18 298 829 |
| Kamala Harris | 4.3 % | 9 021 167 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.5 % | 7 550 260 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.6 % | 8 240 958 |
| Donald Trump | 1.8 % | 10 224 082 |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.8 % | 12 582 545 |
| Mark Kelly | 1.8 % | 696 796 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.5 % | 8 381 475 |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.5 % | 14 243 674 |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1 % | 19 181 147 |
| Wes Moore | 0.9 % | 12 615 293 |
| Greg Abbott | 0.9 % | 35 372 476 |
| Ro Khanna | 0.9 % | 10 792 276 |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8 % | 8 373 941 |
| James Talarico | 0.8 % | 7 161 147 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.4 % | 13 800 065 |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.4 % | 8 219 105 |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.4 % | 10 969 243 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.4 % | 15 588 000 |
| JB Pritzker | 0.4 % | 12 973 072 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.2 % | 27 464 413 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1 % | 35 364 025 |
| Elon Musk | 0.1 % | 27 125 182 |
| Michelle Obama | 0.1 % | 19 245 535 |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1 % | 502 078 |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1 % | 1 450 999 |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.1 % | 659 739 |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1 % | 33 473 992 |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1 % | 30 102 034 |
| Tim Walz | 0.1 % | 44 724 482 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1 % | 37 947 101 |
| LeBron James | 0.1 % | 54 776 384 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1 % | 40 269 509 |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1 % | 22 190 376 |
| Eric Trump | 0.1 % | 18 826 861 |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1 % | 10 339 085 |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1 % | 2 710 473 |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1 % | 631 523 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1 % | 259 722 |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1 % | 933 000 |
| Josh Stein | 0.1 % | 1 023 067 |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1 % | 835 611 |
| Candace Owens | 0.1 % | 519 464 |
| Tim Scott | 0.1 % | 378 978 |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1 % | 363 010 |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1 % | 385 978 |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1 % | 374 917 |
| Rick Scott | 0.1 % | 489 602 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «JD Vance» is ahead at 23 %, 10 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
52 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 5 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $705 813 629 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2028-11-07. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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