Prediction market odds on Presidential Election Winner 2028
Traders have put $709 078 403 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 21 % means the market treats «JD Vance» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 20.9 % | 16 486 989 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.1 % | 13 689 554 |
| Jon Ossoff | 11.7 % | 5 732 366 |
| Marco Rubio | 8.8 % | 12 585 941 |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.2 % | 18 453 322 |
| Kamala Harris | 4.2 % | 9 074 331 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3 % | 7 566 964 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8 % | 8 320 447 |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.8 % | 12 627 048 |
| Mark Kelly | 1.6 % | 721 001 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.6 % | 8 407 525 |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.6 % | 14 266 488 |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1 % | 19 232 519 |
| Donald Trump | 1.1 % | 10 645 073 |
| Thomas Massie | 0.9 % | 8 411 124 |
| Wes Moore | 0.9 % | 12 672 182 |
| Ro Khanna | 0.9 % | 10 911 650 |
| James Talarico | 0.8 % | 7 423 868 |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.5 % | 8 242 718 |
| JB Pritzker | 0.4 % | 13 060 810 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.4 % | 13 812 702 |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.4 % | 10 993 247 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.4 % | 15 600 269 |
| Greg Abbott | 0.4 % | 35 386 662 |
| Ted Cruz | 0.4 % | 119 626 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.1 % | 28 203 301 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1 % | 35 390 070 |
| Elon Musk | 0.1 % | 27 152 244 |
| Michelle Obama | 0.1 % | 19 297 138 |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1 % | 508 138 |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.1 % | 713 235 |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1 % | 33 479 139 |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1 % | 30 172 104 |
| Tim Walz | 0.1 % | 44 725 762 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1 % | 37 953 546 |
| LeBron James | 0.1 % | 54 781 576 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1 % | 40 272 662 |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1 % | 22 202 719 |
| Eric Trump | 0.1 % | 18 828 190 |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1 % | 10 340 158 |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1 % | 2 710 577 |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1 % | 789 523 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1 % | 270 722 |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1 % | 933 129 |
| Josh Stein | 0.1 % | 1 023 067 |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1 % | 835 611 |
| Candace Owens | 0.1 % | 519 544 |
| Tim Scott | 0.1 % | 379 028 |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1 % | 363 010 |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1 % | 386 253 |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1 % | 1 538 690 |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1 % | 374 917 |
| Rick Scott | 0.1 % | 489 925 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «JD Vance» is ahead at 21 %, 8 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
53 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 5 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $709 078 403 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2029-01-21. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Quoted from the market rules.
Rules are one half of the picture and terms are the other. Look at what a platform charges before you move any money.
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