Prediction market odds on Putin out as President of Russia by when?
Traders have put $25 668 531 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 12 % means the market treats «June 30, 2027» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 11.5 % | 478 385 |
| December 31, 2026 | 4.2 % | 22 049 996 |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.1 % | 1 786 197 |
| July 31, 2026 | 0 % | 274 685 |
| August 31, 2026 | 0 % | 1 079 268 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «June 30, 2027» is ahead at 12 %, 7 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
5 outcomes, and 95 % of everything staked is concentrated in three of them. That concentration is itself information.
Some $25 668 531 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-07-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules.
The principle is general. The limits, fees and verification steps are not: they belong to whichever platform you sign up with.
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