Prediction market odds on Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Traders have put $707 973 506 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 51 % means the market treats «J.D. Vance» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 51 % | 15 709 885 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49 % | 0 |
| Marco Rubio | 15.3 % | 10 684 314 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.5 % | 13 804 603 |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.9 % | 15 564 029 |
| Donald Trump | 2.1 % | 9 594 526 |
| Ted Cruz | 2.1 % | 19 468 405 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.8 % | 9 678 523 |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9 % | 8 600 736 |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8 % | 6 137 597 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.5 % | 14 076 474 |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.5 % | 9 362 187 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.4 % | 8 720 136 |
| Brian Kemp | 0.4 % | 17 937 330 |
| Josh Hawley | 0.4 % | 20 409 848 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.4 % | 6 768 194 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.2 % | 16 110 878 |
| Greg Abbott | 0.2 % | 21 382 057 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.2 % | 16 846 487 |
| Katie Britt | 0.2 % | 28 967 539 |
| Rand Paul | 0.2 % | 19 563 638 |
| Candace Owens | 0.2 % | 873 269 |
| Byron Donalds | 0.2 % | 44 427 326 |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1 % | 10 392 451 |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1 % | 27 993 172 |
| Elon Musk | 0.1 % | 31 384 564 |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1 % | 37 659 424 |
| Mike Pence | 0.1 % | 43 713 192 |
| Steve Bannon | 0.1 % | 22 996 881 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1 % | 28 566 430 |
| Eric Trump | 0.1 % | 10 576 934 |
| Joe Kent | 0.1 % | 8 934 397 |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1 % | 1 591 950 |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1 % | 462 739 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1 % | 35 505 865 |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1 % | 20 411 206 |
| John Thune | 0.1 % | 38 187 015 |
| Tom Brady | 0.1 % | 32 968 958 |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1 % | 19 033 566 |
| Tim Scott | 0.1 % | 531 420 |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1 % | 872 175 |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1 % | 739 544 |
| Rick Scott | 0.1 % | 763 644 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «J.D. Vance» is ahead at 51 %, 2 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
43 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 4 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $707 973 506 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2028-11-08. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quoted from the market rules.
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