Prediction market odds on Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Traders have put $704 283 145 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 51 % means the market treats «J.D. Vance» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 51.2 % | 15 642 726 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49 % | 0 |
| Marco Rubio | 16.5 % | 10 630 965 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.5 % | 13 782 153 |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.4 % | 15 514 579 |
| Donald Trump | 1.9 % | 9 550 711 |
| Ted Cruz | 1.8 % | 19 447 685 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6 % | 9 652 951 |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9 % | 8 562 213 |
| Thomas Massie | 0.7 % | 6 104 259 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.4 % | 8 717 575 |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.4 % | 9 353 368 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.4 % | 13 951 964 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.4 % | 16 836 975 |
| Brian Kemp | 0.4 % | 17 936 484 |
| Josh Hawley | 0.4 % | 20 266 787 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.4 % | 6 764 710 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.2 % | 16 107 724 |
| Byron Donalds | 0.2 % | 44 418 434 |
| Rand Paul | 0.2 % | 19 540 527 |
| Candace Owens | 0.2 % | 861 109 |
| Steve Bannon | 0.2 % | 22 965 800 |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1 % | 10 383 969 |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1 % | 20 716 584 |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1 % | 27 989 458 |
| Katie Britt | 0.1 % | 28 962 150 |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1 % | 37 624 844 |
| Mike Pence | 0.1 % | 43 707 874 |
| Tom Brady | 0.1 % | 32 958 178 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1 % | 28 562 890 |
| Eric Trump | 0.1 % | 10 572 014 |
| Joe Kent | 0.1 % | 8 927 696 |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1 % | 1 581 307 |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1 % | 434 386 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1 % | 34 450 312 |
| Elon Musk | 0.1 % | 30 428 543 |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1 % | 20 391 112 |
| John Thune | 0.1 % | 38 164 800 |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1 % | 18 946 545 |
| Tim Scott | 0.1 % | 524 420 |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1 % | 866 175 |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1 % | 729 544 |
| Rick Scott | 0.1 % | 750 644 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «J.D. Vance» is ahead at 51 %, 2 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
43 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 4 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $704 283 145 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2028-11-07. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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