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Prediction market odds on US announces end of Iranian blockade by when?

Traders have put $31 727 593 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 77 % means the market treats «March 31, 2027» as that likely, not that it is settled.

Outcomes and implied probability

OutcomeImplied chanceVolume
March 31, 202777 %2 845
December 31, 202661.3 %2 320 843
November 30, 202644.5 %653
October 31, 202631.5 %2 112 123
October 15, 202618.5 %20 640
September 30, 202610.5 %4 429 416
July 24, 20260 %351 769
July 31, 20260 %1 106 597
August 15, 20260 %3 291 961
August 31, 20260 %4 936 928
July 14, 20260 %43 360
August 7, 20260 %2 973 355
August 8, 20260 %417 212
August 9, 20260 %697 453
August 10, 20260 %543 176
August 11, 20260 %607 660
August 12, 20260 %490 308
August 13, 20260 %404 258
August 14, 20260 %495 637
August 22, 20260 %1 478 692
September 7, 20260 %1 780 252
September 14, 20260 %1 759 863
September 21, 20260 %1 462 592
Data collected 2026-09-25 10:06 UTC · Source: public prediction-market data

What these numbers say

This is a close one. «March 31, 2027» is ahead at 77 %, 16 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.

23 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 7 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.

Some $31 727 593 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.

The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.

Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.

How this market settles

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or part

Quoted from the market rules.

This applies wherever you bet. When you act on it, pick a platform whose terms match where you live and how you plan to deposit.

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