Prediction market odds on US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Traders have put $28 482 966 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 63 % means the market treats «December 31,» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 62.5 % | 1 734 453 |
| October 31, | 39.5 % | 1 240 320 |
| September 30, | 15.5 % | 3 258 995 |
| September 21, | 6.5 % | 870 718 |
| July 24, | 0 % | 351 769 |
| July 31, | 0 % | 1 106 597 |
| August 15, | 0 % | 3 291 961 |
| August 31, | 0 % | 4 936 928 |
| July 14, | 0 % | 43 360 |
| August 7, | 0 % | 2 973 355 |
| August 8, | 0 % | 417 212 |
| August 9, | 0 % | 697 453 |
| August 10, | 0 % | 543 176 |
| August 11, | 0 % | 607 660 |
| August 12, | 0 % | 490 308 |
| August 13, | 0 % | 404 258 |
| August 14, | 0 % | 495 637 |
| August 22, | 0 % | 1 478 692 |
| September 7, | 0 % | 1 780 252 |
| September 14, | 0 % | 1 759 863 |
What these numbers say
«December 31,» dominates at 63 % — 23 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
20 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 22 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $28 482 966 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or part
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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