Prediction market odds on US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by when?
Traders have put $18 176 091 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 12 % means the market treats «December 31,» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 12.5 % | 2 997 542 |
| November 30, | 8.5 % | 67 088 |
| October 31, | 3.4 % | 296 230 |
| September 30, | 0.4 % | 1 842 710 |
| June 30, | 0 % | 3 177 206 |
| July 31, | 0 % | 1 357 968 |
| August 13, | 0 % | 1 144 433 |
| August 18, | 0 % | 2 730 304 |
| August 31, | 0 % | 4 562 610 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «December 31,» is ahead at 12 %, 4 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
9 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 18 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $18 176 091 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-06-15. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical s
Quoted from the market rules.
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