Prediction market odds on US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Traders have put $29 328 245 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 6 % means the market treats «December 31» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6.5 % | 2 251 878 |
| September 30 | 1.1 % | 147 029 |
| April 30 | 0 % | 1 163 934 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 4 501 330 |
| July 31 | 0 % | 655 491 |
| August 31 | 0 % | 65 753 |
| May 31 | 0 % | 20 542 829 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «December 31» is ahead at 6 %, 5 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
7 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 12 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $29 328 245 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, e
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