Prediction market odds on Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Traders have put $97 613 685 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 60 % means the market treats «Nicolás Maduro be the leader» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro be the leader | 60.2 % | 3 243 355 |
| Delcy Rodríguez be the leader | 36.5 % | 2 193 342 |
| there be no head of state | 1.1 % | 1 623 977 |
| Marco Rubio be the leader | 0.1 % | 1 488 217 |
| Jorge Rodríguez be the leader | 0.1 % | 1 237 733 |
| Pete Hegseth be the leader | 0.1 % | 9 274 917 |
| Frank Donovan be the leader | 0.1 % | 25 860 249 |
| Edmundo González be the leader | 0.1 % | 1 373 346 |
| María Corina Machado be the leader | 0.1 % | 1 541 617 |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader | 0.1 % | 2 134 240 |
| Dinorah Figuera be the leader | 0.1 % | 3 001 708 |
| Donald Trump be the leader | 0.1 % | 1 149 161 |
| Vladimir Padrino López be the leader | 0.1 % | 891 218 |
| Evan Pettus be the leader | 0.1 % | 5 655 685 |
| Dan Caine be the leader | 0.1 % | 4 154 186 |
| Richard Grenell be the leader | 0.1 % | 32 790 733 |
What these numbers say
«Nicolás Maduro be the leader» dominates at 60 % — 24 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
16 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 7 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $97 613 685 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to th
Quoted from the market rules.
None of the above depends on the operator. Everything about your money does, so read their rules before you deposit.
Head to Dexsport