Prediction market odds on Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Traders have put $28 595 363 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 74 % means the market treats «United Russia (ER)» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| United Russia (ER) | 74.5 % | 10 355 712 |
| New People (NL) | 22.9 % | 3 108 120 |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 2.4 % | 3 886 804 |
| Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 0.9 % | 2 033 458 |
| Yabloko | 0.4 % | 2 075 796 |
| Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 0.1 % | 2 766 296 |
| Rodina | 0.1 % | 3 034 612 |
| Civic Platform (GP) | 0.1 % | 1 334 566 |
What these numbers say
«United Russia (ER)» dominates at 74 % — 52 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
8 outcomes, and 61 % of everything staked is concentrated in three of them. That concentration is itself information.
Some $28 595 363 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-09-20. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results
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