Prediction market odds on Which party will win the House in 2026?
Traders have put $11 441 446 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 90 % means the market treats «Democratic» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 89.5 % | 6 602 298 |
| Republican | 10.5 % | 4 839 148 |
What these numbers say
«Democratic» dominates at 90 % — 79 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
Some $11 441 446 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-11-03. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the part
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
Read this alongside the terms of whichever platform you use — those terms, not this page, decide what happens to your stake.
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