Prediction market odds on Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Traders have put $37 443 471 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 53 % means the market treats «Gadi Eizenkot» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 53.1 % | 1 975 709 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 29.5 % | 3 885 424 |
| Naftali Bennett | 9.5 % | 3 144 389 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 5.1 % | 2 619 399 |
| Ofer Winter | 0.9 % | 276 239 |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.4 % | 1 580 664 |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.4 % | 1 643 748 |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.2 % | 2 489 389 |
| Yair Golan | 0.2 % | 2 364 249 |
| Amir Ohana | 0.1 % | 2 556 439 |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1 % | 2 246 015 |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1 % | 1 600 792 |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.1 % | 2 288 595 |
| Yariv Levin | 0.1 % | 1 886 920 |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.1 % | 1 916 267 |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0.1 % | 1 846 102 |
| Israel Katz | 0.1 % | 833 482 |
| Nir Barkat | 0.1 % | 1 569 657 |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.1 % | 719 993 |
What these numbers say
«Gadi Eizenkot» dominates at 53 % — 24 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
19 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 24 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $37 443 471 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-12-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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