Prediction market odds on Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Traders have put $38 978 248 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 53 % means the market treats «Gadi Eizenkot» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 52.9 % | 2 306 409 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 29.5 % | 4 425 639 |
| Naftali Bennett | 10 % | 3 235 599 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2.8 % | 2 771 435 |
| Ofer Winter | 1.4 % | 282 743 |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.4 % | 1 586 506 |
| Yair Golan | 0.4 % | 2 375 410 |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.2 % | 2 795 787 |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.2 % | 1 646 371 |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1 % | 1 605 213 |
| Amir Ohana | 0.1 % | 2 568 023 |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1 % | 2 247 015 |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.1 % | 2 297 595 |
| Yariv Levin | 0.1 % | 1 897 920 |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.1 % | 1 929 278 |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0.1 % | 1 859 104 |
| Israel Katz | 0.1 % | 844 482 |
| Nir Barkat | 0.1 % | 1 581 726 |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.1 % | 721 993 |
What these numbers say
«Gadi Eizenkot» dominates at 53 % — 23 points clear. That gap is the market saying it considers the matter mostly resolved, not that it cannot be wrong.
19 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 26 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $38 978 248 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-10-27. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules.
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