Prediction market odds on Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Traders have put $41 484 815 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 4 % means the market treats «Yes» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.9 % | 41 484 815 |
What these numbers say
Some $41 484 815 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-12-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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