Prediction market odds on Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Traders have put $21 917 631 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 5 % means the market treats «December 31» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5 % | 2 308 840 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 6 617 007 |
| January 31 | 0 % | 547 335 |
| March 31 | 0 % | 8 547 234 |
| February 28 | 0 % | 451 402 |
| April 30 | 0 % | 1 638 699 |
| May 31 | 0 % | 1 807 115 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «December 31» is ahead at 5 %, 5 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
7 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 43 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $21 917 631 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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