Prediction market odds on Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Traders have put $26 282 865 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 6 % means the market treats «Yes» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6.5 % | 26 282 865 |
What these numbers say
Some $26 282 865 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preser
Quoted from the market rules.
This holds regardless of where you place the bet. What changes with the platform is the payout schedule and the paperwork.
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