Prediction market odds on Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Traders have put $10 805 547 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 2 % means the market treats «Yes» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.6 % | 10 805 547 |
What these numbers say
Some $10 805 547 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territ
Quoted from the market rules.
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