Prediction market odds on Will the US confirm that aliens exist by when?
Traders have put $70 335 421 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 4 % means the market treats «before 2027» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| before 2027 | 3.5 % | 39 560 255 |
| by September 30 | 0.1 % | 6 928 125 |
| by April 30 | 0 % | 1 938 643 |
| by June 30 | 0 % | 11 225 287 |
| by May 31 | 0 % | 8 741 733 |
| by March 31 | 0 % | 1 941 378 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «before 2027» is ahead at 4 %, 3 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
6 outcomes, and 69 % of everything staked is concentrated in three of them. That concentration is itself information.
Some $70 335 421 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quoted from the market rules.
None of the above depends on the operator. Everything about your money does, so read their rules before you deposit.
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