Prediction market odds on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Traders have put $68 786 890 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 14 % means the market treats «Yes» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13.5 % | 68 786 890 |
What these numbers say
Some $68 786 890 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Quoted from the market rules.
Read this alongside the terms of whichever platform you use — those terms, not this page, decide what happens to your stake.
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