Prediction market odds on Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Traders have put $14 196 811 behind this question. The table shows what each outcome is priced at right now — a price of 3 % means the market treats «December 31, 2026» as that likely, not that it is settled.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 3.4 % | 240 803 |
| December 31, 2025 | 0 % | 2 764 332 |
| March 31, 2026 | 0 % | 2 823 126 |
| January 31, 2026 | 0 % | 8 368 551 |
What these numbers say
This is a close one. «December 31, 2026» is ahead at 3 %, 3 points over second — within the range that a week of news routinely swings.
4 outcomes are priced on this event, and the top three hold only 41 % of the money. That is a field without a consensus favourite — the betting is spread across the board rather than concentrated on one name.
Some $14 196 811 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The market closes 2026-03-31. Prices move most in the days right before that, when the outcome stops being a forecast and starts being a fact.
Read the percentages as the market's own odds, not as our prediction. A 70 % outcome is expected to lose three times in ten — if it never did, the price would not be 70 %.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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